Overall Rating (OVR)
Each team receives a composite OVR score on a 50–95 scale, derived from three data sources weighted by predictive reliability:
OVR = (0.40 × FIFA_pts_normalised)
+ (0.40 × ELO_normalised)
+ (0.20 × Recent_form_score)
FIFA source : FIFA.com — April 1, 2026 update
ELO source : eloratings.net — January 2026
Form score : 0–10 based on qualifying results,
recent friendlies, tournament performance
Both FIFA and ELO are normalised against the full range of all 48 qualified teams before weighting. This prevents any single outlier dominating the composite.
Match Simulation Engine
Each match uses an ELO-style probability formula with tactical modifiers:
Win probability (A vs B):
P(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(-(adj_A - adj_B) / 15))
adj = OVR + tactical_modifier + form_adj
+ rest_bonus + venue_bonus
Tactical modifier: ±0–10 pts based on
style matchup matrix (8×8 grid)
Draw probability: scaled by rating delta
(closer teams → higher draw %)
xG model: base 1.0 goals ± rating adj
capped at 0.3–3.5 per team
Monte Carlo Tournament Simulation
The engine simulates the full tournament bracket N times (up to 50,000) using chunked async JavaScript to avoid blocking the UI thread. Each iteration:
1. Apply stochastic rating noise per team
(controlled by upset factor slider)
2. Apply roster adjustments if enabled
(injury risk, aging penalty, youth boost)
3. Apply host advantage for USA/CAN/MEX
4. Simulate each match using win probabilities
5. Track knockout progression per team
6. Count championship, semi-final outcomes
Dark Horse Index (DHI)
DHI = (0.30 × ELO_overperformance)
+ (0.25 × recent_form_score × 10)
+ (0.20 × tactical_flexibility)
+ (0.15 × group_difficulty_inverse)
+ (0.10 × squad_balance)
Scaled 0–100. Higher = greater upset potential
Tactical Style Matrix
8 tactical styles interact via a modifier grid. Example: high-pressing teams gain +0.08 vs counter-attacking sides but struggle against direct play (+0.04 for the direct team). These modifiers add realism that pure ELO cannot capture.
⚠️ Ratings are proprietary model estimates combining publicly available FIFA and ELO data. They are not official FIFA ratings. All simulations are probabilistic forecasts. Results will vary between runs due to intentional randomness modelling real-world variance.