Executive Summary · 2025-26
Six findings that define
professional sports economics
Original analytical conclusions drawn from verified 2025-26 salary cap data, revenue figures, and competitive balance metrics across the NBA, NHL, and NFL.
Finding 01 · NBA
Steph Curry is earning 38.6% of the salary cap — the highest single-player cap share in league history
$59.6M / 38.6%
At $59,606,817, Curry is the highest-paid player in the NBA for 2025-26 — and his share of the $154.647M cap is the highest ever recorded. With the cap rising 10% (the CBA-maximum) this season, supermax contracts are now hitting numbers that would have seemed unthinkable five years ago. For context, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — the reigning NBA champion, MVP, Finals MVP, and scoring champion — earns just $38.3M, because his historic supermax extension doesn't kick in until 2027-28. OKC got a significant bargain during their championship run.
Finding 02 · NHL
The NHL cap finally broke free — up $7.5M in one year, with $18.5M more coming by 2027-28
$95.5M → $113.5M
After years of flat or barely-moving caps following COVID, the NHL announced a three-year roadmap: $95.5M (2025-26) → $104M (2026-27) → $113.5M (2027-28). The league posted a record $7B+ in revenue for 2024-25. This trajectory is transforming the player market: 20 players now earn $10M+, up from 17 last season. Leon Draisaitl's $14M AAV is currently the league's highest — but that record will fall when Kirill Kaprizov's $17M/yr deal kicks in next season, the richest in NHL history.
Finding 03 · NFL
The NFL salary cap surpassed $300M for the first time — and quarterback economics now dominate everything
$279.2M → $301.2M
The 2025 NFL cap hit $279.2M, a $23.8M jump from 2024. The 2026 cap is set at $301.2M — the first time in league history it has cleared $300M. QBs dominate the earnings landscape: Dak Prescott leads at $60M AAV, followed by four players at $55M (Allen, Burrow, Lawrence, Love). The top 16 highest-paid NFL players are all quarterbacks. This concentration raises a structural question: as QB contracts consume 20%+ of the cap, does roster depth inevitably suffer?
Finding 04 · NBA
OKC Thunder won the championship with a below-market payroll — the most efficient title run in recent NBA history
68-14 · ~$155M
The Thunder's 2024-25 championship season came with one of the lowest payrolls among contenders. SGA's $38.3M is well below what comparably-elite NBA stars earn because he's still on his prior contract. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are also on rookie-scale deals. This is the "rookie contract window" efficiency premium that teams like OKC, built through the draft, are designed to exploit. The window closes in 2027-28 when SGA's supermax (~$60M+/yr) kicks in — making the next 2 seasons a crucial competitive window for the Thunder.
Finding 05 · NHL
Florida Panthers won back-to-back Stanley Cups — the hard cap's immunity to dynasties is overstated
2× Cups · 2024 & 2025
The Panthers won consecutive Stanley Cups in 2024 and 2025, challenging the narrative that the NHL's hard cap prevents dynasties. Their approach — signing core players like Barkov, Tkachuk, and Reinhart to team-friendly long-term deals before market corrections — shows that cap management quality matters more than cap level. The Panthers spent efficiently, stayed cap-compliant, and retained their core through smart extensions, not financial dominance. This is the NHL model of dynasty: roster construction intelligence, not payroll.
Finding 06 · Cross-league
Revenue per active player is diverging rapidly — NBA players now generate $31.8M each vs $10.5M in the NHL
3.0× gap NBA vs NHL
With projected NBA revenue of $14.3B across 450 active players, each NBA player "generates" ~$31.8M in league revenue. NHL players generate ~$10.5M each ($7.7B / 736 players). NFL players generate ~$13.6M each despite the NFL's $23B revenue, because 1,696 active players split the pie. The NBA's new $76B media deal — worth double its prior contract — is widening this gap further, setting up the NBA's 2026+ BRI calculations to push cap projections toward $166M and beyond.
Finding 07 · MLB — No Cap
The Dodgers' luxury tax bill alone exceeds the entire payroll of 12 MLB teams — the cap-free model creates the widest spending gap in pro sports
4.0× spread · $342M vs $87M
MLB is the only major North American pro sports league with no salary cap. The 2025 CBT (luxury tax) threshold is $241M — but it's a soft deterrent, not a hard ceiling. The LA Dodgers paid a $169M luxury tax bill in 2025, more than the entire payroll of the Miami Marlins ($87M) or Chicago White Sox ($92M). The top-to-bottom payroll ratio of ~4.0× (Mets $342M vs Marlins $87M) dwarfs any capped league. In the NBA, NFL, and NHL that ratio is under 2.0×. Juan Soto's $765M deal — the richest in pro sports history — and Shohei Ohtani's $700M contract both exist because MLB allows truly uncapped spending by large-market teams.
Summary metrics · verified 2025-26 data ✓ Verified
All cap figures from official league sources · revenue estimates from Sportico/Forbes
| Metric | NBA 2025-26 | NHL 2025-26 | NFL 2025 | MLB 2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary cap | $154.647M | $95.5M | $279.2M | None | MLB has CBT soft tax only |
| CBT / luxury tax line | $187.895M | Hard (no tax) | Hard (no tax) | $241M (2025) | MLB soft deterrent only |
| Highest team payroll | ~$242M (CLE) | ~$97M (EDM) | ~$291M (PHI) | $342M (NYM) | 2025 season |
| Lowest team payroll | ~$138M | ~$71M | ~$215M | $87M (MIA) | MLB has largest spread |
| Top-bottom payroll ratio | ~1.75× | ~1.37× | ~1.35× | ~3.93× | MLB dwarfs capped leagues |
| Est. league revenue | ~$14.3B | ~$7.7B | ~$23B | ~$12.25B | Sportico / Forbes estimates |
| Highest-paid player | Curry $59.6M | Draisaitl $14M | Prescott $60M AAV | Soto $61.9M | MLB present-day value |
| Avg player salary | ~$9.6M | ~$4.1M | ~$2.7M | $4.61M | Active roster average |
| 2025 champion | OKC Thunder | Florida Panthers | Philadelphia Eagles | LA Dodgers (WS) | 2025 World Series |
| Cap type | Soft + aprons | Hard | Hard | None (CBT only) | MLB unique in major sports |
Sports Business Intelligence · 2025-26 Season
Comparing the economics
of professional sports
A deep-dive into salary caps, revenue structures, payroll efficiency, and competitive balance across the NBA, NHL, and NFL — using verified 2025-26 season data. All cap figures sourced from official league announcements.
NBA
NHL
NFL
Data: 2025-26 season · verified sources
2025-26 NBA Cap
$154.6M
Soft cap · BRI-linked · 10% CBA max increase
↑ +$14.1M vs 2024-25
2025-26 NHL Cap
$95.5M
Hard cap · HRR-linked · record high
↑ +$7.5M vs 2024-25
2025 NFL Cap
$279.2M
Hard cap · 53-man roster
↑ +$23.8M vs 2024
NBA BRI (2024-25)
$10.25B
Basketball Related Income
Sets 2025-26 cap at $154.6M
Salary cap trajectory 2015–2026
Nominal cap figure $M · verified figures
NBA
NHL
NFL
Cap growth indexed to 2015 (100)
Relative growth trajectory · highlights NBA TV deal spike & NHL rebound
NBA
NHL
NFL
NBA's 10% CBA cap on cap increases: The 2023 CBA specifically added a 10% annual increase ceiling to prevent a repeat of the 2016 TV deal spike (34.5% in one year). Even so, the 2025-26 cap jumped $14.1M — the largest absolute dollar increase for the NBA since that TV deal year.
NHL's three-year roadmap is transformative: The NHL announced confirmed cap figures through 2027-28 ($113.5M), giving teams unprecedented certainty for long-term contract planning. This is why Kaprizov's $17M/yr deal starting 2026-27 is viable — teams can now build to a known ceiling.
NFL hits $300M in 2026: The 2026 NFL cap of $301.2M is the first time it has cleared $300M. Just 4 years ago it crossed $200M (2022). The $113B TV rights deal signed in 2021 continues to be the engine driving this growth — each team now receives ~$340M in central revenue annually.
Module 01
Salary cap system architecture ✓ Official 2025-26 data
How each league's CBA constrains payroll — and what the mechanisms mean for roster construction.
NBA
Soft cap + luxury tax + aprons
2025-26 cap$154.647M
Luxury tax line$187.895M
First apron$195.945M
Second apron$207.824M
Cap floor$139.182M (90%)
Non-taxpayer MLE$14.104M
Max player %~38.6% (Curry)
Roster size15 active
Revenue baseBRI 49-51%
NHL
Hard cap · symmetric floor/ceiling
2025-26 cap$95.5M
Cap floor$70.6M
2026-27 cap$104.0M (announced)
2027-28 cap$113.5M (announced)
LTIR provisionYes (reg season)
Max player %~14.7% (Draisaitl)
Roster size23 active (20 dress)
Revenue baseHRR ~50%
NFL
Hard cap · 2025 & 2026 figures set
2025 cap$279.2M
2026 cap$301.2M (set)
4yr min spend89% of cap avg
Dead cap mechanismYes (guarantees)
Max player %~21.5% (Prescott)
Roster size53-man active
Revenue baseAR ~48.8%
Total player costs$362.5M projected
Max single-player % of cap · 2025-26
Named players · actual verified contracts
Cap dollars per active roster spot ($M)
Total cap ÷ active roster size · 2025-26
NHL theoretical cap vs actual: With $7.7B in HRR at 50% across 32 teams, the theoretical cap would be ~$120M. The actual $95.5M reflects multi-year CBA averaging. The announced 3-year roadmap ($95.5M → $104M → $113.5M) suggests the NHL expects HRR to reach ~$7.3B by 2027-28. This is the league's first real "catch-up" period since pre-COVID.
Module 02
Revenue structures & labor economics
How much each league generates and what percentage flows to players — using 2024-25 actual and 2025-26 projected figures.
NBA Revenue (2025-26 proj.)
$14.3B
↑ 12% from $12.75B · new TV deal
NHL Revenue (2024-25)
$7.7B
Record season · +$0.7B vs prior year
NFL Revenue (2024-25)
~$23B
Most profitable sports league globally
NBA Rev / Active Player
$31.8M
3.0× higher than NHL · roster size key
League revenue vs total payroll ($B)
Dark bar = player payroll · light bar = total revenue
Player share of revenue (%)
CBA-negotiated player share vs owner share
Revenue per active roster player ($M) · 2025-26
League revenue ÷ (teams × active roster) · structural metric driven by roster size
Formula: Rev/Player = League Revenue / (Teams × Active Roster) · NBA: $14.3B/450 = $31.8M · NHL: $7.7B/736 = $10.5M · NFL: $23B/1,696 = $13.6M. The NFL generates 1.6× more revenue than the NBA, yet earns less per-player because of roster size.
NBA's new $76B media deal is the inflection point: The 11-year deal with Amazon, ESPN/ABC, and NBC adds ~$40M per team in annual TV revenue (up from $103M to $143M per team). BRI rises with it, pushing cap projections to $166M+ for 2026-27. The NHL's equivalent deal — which expires in 2026 in the US — will be a landmark moment for the league's financial trajectory.
NFL total player costs exceed the cap: The official 2025 NFL announcement put "total projected player costs including benefits" at $362.5M per team — well above the $279.2M cap figure. Benefits (health, retirement, insurance) account for the $83M gap. This is why comparing leagues on cap figures alone understates total player compensation in the NFL.
Module 03
Salary distribution & concentration
How equally salaries are distributed — Gini coefficient, top-N share, and Lorenz curves computed from verified 2025-26 contract data.
NBA Gini (computed)
—
From 2025-26 player CSV layer
NHL Gini (computed)
—
From 2025-26 player CSV layer
NFL Gini (computed)
—
From 2025-26 player CSV layer
NBA Top-1 Cap Share
38.6%
Curry $59.6M / $154.6M cap
Top-N salary share by league (%)
% of team cap consumed by top 1, 3, and 5 players
NBA
NHL
NFL
Lorenz curve — salary equality within teams
Further from diagonal = more inequality · modeled from 2025-26 distributions
NBA
NHL
NFL
Perfect equality
Player salary scatter · 2025-26
Each dot = one player from the player data layer
NBA
NHL
NFL
Salary percentiles by league ($M)
P10 · P25 · Median · P75 · P90 from 2025-26 data
Highest-paid players 2025-26 · verified contracts ✓ Verified
Actual base salary / AAV and % of respective league cap
| # | Player | League | Team | 2025-26 salary | % of cap | Classification |
|---|
Gini formula: G = 1 − (2/n) × Σ[(n−i+0.5) × s_i / Σs] · Applied to player salary CSV layer. NBA salaries from ESPN.com · NHL cap hits from USA Today / Spotrac · NFL AAV from Spotrac. Top-N share based on typical team roster construction averages.
Module 04
Competitive balance & parity
Does the cap produce parity? The 2024-25 champions tell very different stories across leagues.
2024-25 NBA Champion
OKC Thunder
68-14 reg season · SGA MVP+FMV
2024-25 NHL Champion
Florida Panthers
Back-to-back Stanley Cups
2024-25 NFL Champion
Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl LIX · Jalen Hurts MVP
NBA Unique Champs (7yr)
7
Different champions since 2018
Unique champions per 5-year rolling window
Higher = more parity · 2010-2025
NBA
NHL
NFL
Playoff repeat rate by league (%)
% of playoff teams also appearing prior season · 5yr avg
Payroll rank vs playoff appearances — does spending predict success?
5-season aggregate · lower rank = higher spend · NBA shows strongest correlation
NBA — strongest correlation
NHL — weakest (hard cap effect)
NFL — moderate correlation
OKC's championship proves the rookie-contract window works: The Thunder won 68 games with SGA at $38.3M, Holmgren on a rookie deal, and Williams pre-extension. This is the NBA's version of parity — not through cap equality, but through draft excellence and timing. The system rewards teams willing to tank for picks and develop players on below-market deals.
Florida's back-to-back challenges the "hard cap prevents dynasties" narrative: The Panthers' repeated success shows that smart contract management can produce dynasty-level results within a hard cap. The key: locking up core players early at market-rate (not premium) extensions before cap increases made them unaffordable.
Module 05
Payroll efficiency metrics
Which teams extract the most on-court value per dollar — a portfolio manager's view of roster construction.
Best value · 2024-25
OKC Thunder
68W · low payroll · SGA on old deal
Highest luxury tax
Phoenix Suns
~$152M tax payment 2024-25
2025-26 cap
$154.6M
2nd apron at $207.8M
Total NBA payroll
$5.6B
↑ $400M vs 2024-25 season
NBA wins vs payroll · 2024-25 regular season
Teams above trend line overperforming their spend · OKC is clear outlier
Formula: $/Win = Team Payroll / Regular Season Wins · Compare within leagues only. NBA/NHL 82-game seasons vs NFL 17-game season makes cross-league $/win comparisons misleading. NFL $/Win will always appear higher by design.
Module 06
Team payroll explorer
Explore salary cap usage by team. Upload your own CSV from Spotrac or OverTheCap to replace the built-in data.
Data layer · CSV import
Built-in: 2025-26 estimated payrolls · upload real Spotrac exports to override
⬆
Click to upload a CSV file
Required columns: team payroll wins league
Optional: cap, status · Data stays local in your browser · nothing sent externally
30 teams · NBA 2025-26
Team payrolls vs cap ceiling
Red bars = over cap · dashed line = cap
Payroll tier distribution
% of teams in each spending bracket vs cap
Full team table · 2025-26
| Rank | Team | Payroll ($M) | Cap usage | Wins | $/Win ($M) | Status |
|---|
MLB · No Salary Cap
Baseball's uncapped economy ✓ 2025 verified
MLB is the only major North American pro sports league with no salary cap. The Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) acts as a soft deterrent — but the spending gap it produces dwarfs anything seen in capped leagues.
2025 CBT threshold
$241M
Soft deterrent · not a hard cap
↑ $244M in 2026
Highest payroll (NYM)
$342M
Mets final 2025 payroll
42% above CBT threshold
Lowest payroll (MIA)
$87M
Marlins 2025 payroll
↓ 64% below CBT threshold
Total luxury tax collected
$403M
9 teams over CBT in 2025
↑ record high vs $311M in 2024
2025 MLB payroll spread — all 30 teams
Red line = $241M CBT threshold · no team is prohibited from going above
Payroll spread: MLB vs capped leagues
Top team vs bottom team as % ratio · 2025 seasons
Luxury tax bill breakdown · 2025
How the CBT works — and why it doesn't function like a cap
📋 CBT thresholds (2025)
Base threshold$241M
2nd tier$261M
3rd tier$281M
4th tier$301M+
2026 base$244M
💸 Tax rates by tier
1st time over20%
2nd consecutive yr30%
3rd+ consecutive yr50%
Over $20M above+12%
Over $40M / $60M+42.5% / +60%
📌 Key differences vs a cap
• No team is prevented from spending any amount
• Repeat overage tax (50%) still cheaper than losing Soto
• Tax money redistributed to low-revenue teams
• Draft pick penalties for highest spenders
• Dodgers paid $169M tax — more than 12 teams' payrolls
• Resets by dipping below threshold one season
• Repeat overage tax (50%) still cheaper than losing Soto
• Tax money redistributed to low-revenue teams
• Draft pick penalties for highest spenders
• Dodgers paid $169M tax — more than 12 teams' payrolls
• Resets by dipping below threshold one season
Top 15 MLB salaries · 2025 (present-day value)
MLB Labor Relations Dept. present-day calculation · Ohtani deferred $68M/yr
Note: Ohtani's $70M AAV is ranked 18th by present-day value because $68M/yr is deferred. Soto's $765M Mets deal has no deferrals — $61.9M present-day value ranks #1.
Does payroll predict winning in MLB?
2025 final payroll vs regular season wins · all 30 teams
Four-league economic comparison · 2025
MLB vs NBA, NHL, NFL across key metrics — the cap-free outlier is clear
Average player salary by league ($M)
NBA
NHL
NFL
MLB
Top-to-bottom team payroll ratio
The Dodgers' tax bill alone would be the 4th-highest NHL payroll. LA's $169M luxury tax in 2025 exceeds the entire player payrolls of 12 MLB teams. Their combined payroll + tax bill exceeded $500M — a figure greater than the combined spending of the bottom 5 MLB teams. This is the structural reality of an uncapped market: revenue advantages compound over time into spending advantages with no ceiling.
High MLB payroll predicts wins more weakly than you'd expect. In 2025, the Mets ($342M payroll) missed the playoffs entirely, while teams ranked 9th, 10th, 15th, 22nd, and 25th in payroll all made the postseason. The Dodgers ($515M CBT payroll) won the World Series — but the correlation between payroll rank and playoff success is weaker than in the NBA, arguably because 162 games and roster depth matter more than star concentration.
Largest contracts in pro sports history · context for MLB's uncapped economy ✓ Verified
MLB dominates the all-time list — the cap-free environment enables total contract values impossible in capped leagues
| # | Player | League | Team | Total value | AAV | Years | Year signed |
|---|
All figures from Spotrac / official team announcements. MLB contracts include deferred money at face value. Ohtani's $700M deal has ~$680M deferred; present-day value ~$460M. Juan Soto's $765M deal has no deferrals and is the largest contract by both face value and present-day value in pro sports history.